🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Participant Profited $436K on Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was publicly declared, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the event. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month surged in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. But these probabilities had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on the start of the week would prevent federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."